Friday, December 9, 2011

Real US GNP Growth Rates 1870–1913 in Romer

The figures for GNP in Romer are here (I have added the annual growth rates by my own calculation):
Year GNP* Growth Rate
1869 75.609
1870 $76.464 1.13%
1871 $76.952 0.638%
1872 $89.605 16.4%
1873 $94.863 5.86%
1874 $96.205 1.414%
1875 $97.684 1.53%
1876 $104.628 7.10%
1877 $110.797 5.89%
1878 $118.906 7.31%
1879 $127.675 7.37%
1880 $139.990 9.64%
1881 $143.580 2.56%
1882 $149.307 3.98%
1883 $152.097 1.86%
1884 $155.684 2.35%
1885 $157.789 1.35%
1886 $164.375 4.17%
1887 $169.453 3.08%
1888 $168.940 -0.3%
1889 $175.030 3.60%
1890 $182.964 4.53%
1891 $191.757 4.80%
1892 $204.279 6.53%
1893 $202.616 -0.81%
1894 $200.819 -0.88%

1895 $215.668 7.39%
1896 $221.438 2.67%
1897 $233.655 5.51%
1898 $241.459 3.33%
1899 $254.728 5.49%
1900 $264.540 3.85%
1901 $284.908 7.69%
1902 $291.572 2.33%
1903 $306.239 5.03%
1904 $307.127 0.28%
1905 $323.162 5.22%
1906 $351.499 8.76%
1907 $361.920 2.96%
1908 $346.800 -4.17%
1909 $368.872 6.36%
1910 $383.888 4.07%
1911 $391.858 2.07%
1912 $407.112 3.89%
1913 $424.492 4.26%
* Billions of 1982 dollars

Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1913: 4.05%.
(Romer 1989: 22).
Some comments:
(1) A comparison with the 1870–1900 average:
Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1900: 4.17%.
Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1913: 4.05%.
(2) The decade rates:
Average real GNP growth rate, 1871–1880: 6.32%
Average real GNP growth rate, 1881–1890: 2.72%.
Average real GNP growth rate, 1891–1900: 3.79%
Average real GNP growth rate, 1901–1910: 3.85%.
(3) The rate for 1901–1913:
Average real GNP growth rate, 1901–1913: 3.75%
(4) The figures show a severe recession in 1908, where GNP contracted by 4.17%.
BIBLIOGRAPHY

Romer, C. D. 1989. “The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869–1908,” Journal of Political Economy 97.1: 1–37.

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